Definition of seismic and tsunami hazard scenarios by exploiting EU-India Grid e-infrastructures

by A. Magrin, A. Peresan, F. Vaccari, S. Cozzini, B.K. Rastogi, I.A. Parvez, G.F. Panza

Seismic hazard assessment can be performed following a neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), which allows to give a realistic description of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake of given distance and magnitude. The approach is based on modelling techniques that have been developed from a detailed knowledge of both the seismic source process and the propagation of seismic waves.

This permits us to define a set of earthquake scenarios and to simulate the associated synthetic signals without having to wait for a strong event to occur. NDSHA can be applied at the regional scale, computing seismograms at the nodes of a grid with the desired spacing, or at the local scale, taking into account the source characteristics, the path and local geological and geotechnical conditions. Synthetic signals can be produced in a short time and at a very low cost/benefit ratio. They can be used as seismic input in subsequent engineering analyses aimed at the computation of the full non-linear seismic response of the structure or simply the earthquake damaging potential.

Massive parametric tests, to explore the influence not only of deterministic source parameters and structural models but also of random properties of the same source model, enable realistic estimate of seismic hazard and their uncertainty. This is particular true in those areas for which scarce (or no) historical or instrumental information is available. The use of the EU-India Grid infrastructure allows to conduct massive parametric tests for evaluating the uncertainties in the computed hazard maps. In the framework of cooperation project between three Italian partners (DMG, University of Trieste; ICTP SAND Group; CNR/IOM uos Democritos) and two Indian partners (ISR, Gujarat; CSIR C-MMACS, Bangalore) a system will be set up for the scenario-based characterization of the seismic hazard, integrated with the e-infrastructures of the European project EU-India Grid.

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