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Evaluation of a Model Configuration for Regional Rainfall Studies over India 
Thursday, 08 August 2019, 11:00 - 12:30
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 PhD Thesis Viva-Voce

 SHAKTIDHAR NAHAK (AcSIR Enrol. No. 10MM12J45001) 


 ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasting of rainfall over the Indian region still remains a major challenge. At the same time, user requirements for higher precision and accuracy in forecasting rainfall, especially the Indian summer monsoon, are increasing. During the last few decades a number of dynamical forecast models have been developed with focus on weather as well as climate. However, these models still do not possess adequate skill in simulating the spatial and the temporal variability of rainfall. The variability in the rainfall pattern has serious consequences for many sectors like agriculture, health and energy. Accurate precipitation forecasts are also important for pro-active adaptation, mitigation and knowledge-based policy planning. 

India receives most of its annual rainfall during monsoon season (June-September) and it plays a major role for socioeconomic growth of the Nation. It is therefore important to study the complex behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) to quantify rainfall and figure out the number of extreme rainfall events (EREs) that occur over India. There is also requirement of advance prediction of quantitative rainfall and extreme rainfall during monsoon season at multiple spatio-temporal scales over India. In this study evaluation of a Variable Resolution Global Circulation Model (VRGCM) configuration with ensemble simulation approach at seasonal scale is carried out for regional rainfall studies over India with validation against the multi-source rainfall observation. The skill of VRGCM is tested for the advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) at seasonal scale over different regions in India. The model configuration with ensemble simulation approach is also used for the simulation of the EREs and after validation of the model simulations against multi-source rainfall observations; it is found that the VRGCM has potential skill in the predicting quantitative rainfall and EREs at seasonal scale. Finally some case studies are presented to quantify the model performance in predicting the regional rainfall variability over different parts in India. 

All are welcome 

Location Seminar Hall, CSIR 4PI Network Building


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