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Open Ph.D Thesis Colloquium by Ms. Stella Jes Varghese (AcSIR Reg. No: 10PP14A45002) 
Tuesday, 23 June 2020,  3:00 -  5:00
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Ph.D Thesis Colloquium

 

Impact of resolution and deep convection scheme

on simulation of Indian summer monsoon and its projection

under multiple RCPs using multiforcing ensembles

 

Stella Jes Varghese

AcSIR Reg. No: 10PP14A45002

 

Date / Time: Tuesday, 23rd June 2020, 3:00 PM

Venue: Conference Hall, Network Building, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

ABSTRACT

Advanced climate models help to achieve improved phase relationship and teleconnection of tropical convection with respect to sea surface temperature variation in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans. Still, Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and its variability remain challenging features to simulate due to the large gap in understanding its dynamics and associated physical processes. Skillful simulation of mean ISM is mandatory for reliable ISM projection which is imperative for policy decisions and efficient resource management. The skill of current state-of-the-art climate models and NCEP CFSv2, the National Monsoon Mission Model of MoES, GoI, is assessed and found to be deficient in simulating some features of ISM rainfall. Resolution and incorporation of appropriate deep convection scheme, are found to be important for simulating regional and local scale features of ISM rainfall particularly over the orographic regions.

Multiphysics ensemble simulations are made using MRI climate model at very high resolution to identify the right combination of spatial resolution and convection parameterization for improved representation of ISM rainfall. This model configuration is then used for multiforcing ensemble projections of ISM under different climate scenarios termed Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), viz. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Projected changes in ISM show overall increase in surface air temperature (~1oC, ~2oC, ~2.5oC and ~4oC respectively) as well as rainfall (~0.12mm/day, ~0.43mm/day, ~0.67mm/day and ~1mm/day respectively). The change in monsoon rainfall is not as uniform as that in temperature, with a reduction in rainfall over the Western Ghats. The mechanisms behind the projected change in ISM rainfall are also investigated. A combination of increased water vapour in the atmosphere along with increased low-level moisture transport into the subcontinent are the major contributing factors towards future enhancement of rainfall under RCP scenarios. High resolution projection enables us to study projected changes in extreme rainfall and temperature events over India as well as different homogeneous zones. Warm nights are found to increase much larger than warm days in the future. Maximum increase in surface air temperature and rainfall are found over Western Himalaya and Northeast hilly regions respectively.

The projected changes in ISM can have large implications on various sectors of the economy such as agricultural management, water resource management and in fisheries. Using the projected climate change information, future change in rice yield over a representative agricultural station in the state of Kerala is also investigated. Consistent increase in maximum and minimum temperatures along with decrease in rainfall are projected for the station. Resultantly, in future, the rice crop is found to attain early physical maturity due to the accumulated heat which ultimately reduces the rice yield. A delayed planting date is found to give more yield in future in the central zone of Kerala. Short duration, temperature tolerant varieties are suggested for better water efficiency in future.               

Location Conference Hall, Network Building, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute

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